Market: KOSPI (017670)
Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Hong-sik Kim (RA: Sang-hoon Lee)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 100,000 (Maintain)
Core Momentum : Restored dividend credibility driven by 1Q tax-exempt quarterly DPS normalization (KRW 800–900), full-year profit turnaround, and potential multiple expansion from early 5G SA transition and new tariffs tailored for physical AI.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, 12-Month Target Price maintained at KRW 100,000 (Based on the March 30, 2026 closing price of KRW 78,300), reaffirmed as Sector Top Pick for April and the next 12 months
- 1Q26 Earnings Forecast (Preview):
- YoY decline in consolidated operating profit is unavoidable due to tough year-ago base effects from aggressive cost cuts in 1Q25, though qualitative operational trends remain solid
- Sequential rebound in wireless service revenue
- Operating expenses stabilized due to headcount-reduction-driven wage stagnation, general cost controls, and lower CAPEX
- FY2026 Full-Year Forecast:
- Annual Revenue: KRW 17.816 Trillion
- Annual Operating Profit: KRW 1.879 Trillion (Significant YoY operating profit growth expected)
- Annual Net Profit (Controlling Interests): KRW 1.150 Trillion
- 2026E EPS: KRW 5,355 / BPS: KRW 63,274 / ROE: 8.73% / PER: 14.62x / PBR: 1.24x / EV/EBITDA: 4.04x
- Dividends & Shareholder Returns:
- Tax-exempt dividend framework to be applied starting from 1Q26, with 1Q DPS highly likely to be declared within KRW 800–900 (normalizing to FY2024 levels with an effective after-tax yield of ~4.6%)
- Strengthened confidence in achieving full-year FY2026 DPS of KRW 3,600 (Projected FY2027 DPS: KRW 3,800)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Share Price Rebound Driven by Tax-Exempt Dividend Normalization:
- Early 1Q DPS restoration to FY2024 levels solidifies confidence in full-year KRW 3,600 DPS delivery.
- Rising market interest in high after-tax yields from tax-exempt capital reduction payouts is expected to drive institutional and retail buying in April.
- Full-Year Earnings Turnaround:
- Despite top-line drag from the 2Q25 business suspension, disciplined labor and general expense management alongside stabilized marketing costs will underpin a strong annual profit recovery.
- 5G SA Tariff Launch & Multiple Expansion:
- Rising necessity for an early transition to 5G SA to support the expansion of Physical AI applications.
- High likelihood of SKT being selected for sovereign national AI projects in 1H, coupled with leading domestic capabilities in quantum cryptography.
- Long-term integration of AI and quantum cryptography into new 5G SA service plans expected to compress the dividend yield band into the 3% range (triggering PBR and multiple expansion), supporting a share price push past KRW 100,000.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK Telecom as an operator poised to overcome 1Q high-base headwinds through the normalization of its tax-exempt quarterly dividend (KRW 800–900) and a full-year operating profit recovery to KRW 1.88 Trillion, while leading sector re-rating through an early transition to 5G SA and next-generation tariffs designed for physical AI. This perspective establishes the high after-tax dividend yield and full-year KRW 3,600 DPS target as solid downside support, while treating national AI project selection and 5G SA tariff innovation as the primary catalysts for lowering the target dividend yield into the 3% band to achieve the KRW 100,000 target price.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis materializes, key verification points include confirming that 1Q tax-exempt DPS is declared within KRW 800–900 to validate the annual KRW 3,600 dividend roadmap, verifying that ongoing cost discipline delivers the projected ~KRW 1.88 Trillion operating profit turnaround, and monitoring the outcome of 1H sovereign AI project selections alongside regulatory and commercialization steps for 5G SA tariff plans. These developments can be verified via upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR materials, and periodic DART statutory filings.
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