Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Kim Hong-sik, Sang-hoon Lee (RA)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 76,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Medium- to long-term recovery supported by low PBR/PER valuation levels and anticipated 2027 ARPU expansion from new 5G tariff launches, despite near-term standalone earnings softness and flat DPS growth
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / KRW 76,000 (Maintained)
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026F):
- PER: 9.67x
- PBR: 0.71x
- EV/EBITDA: 3.81x
- BPS: KRW 76,517
- ROE: 7.77%
- Expected DPS: KRW 2,400
- Consolidated Financial Highlights & Forecasts (K-IFRS):
- 2024: Revenue KRW 26.43T, Operating Profit KRW 809.5B, Net Profit KRW 470.3B, EPS KRW 1,850
- 2025: Revenue KRW 28.24T, Operating Profit KRW 2.47T, Net Profit KRW 1.73T, EPS KRW 6,869
- 2026F (Forecast): Revenue KRW 28.48T, Operating Profit KRW 1.97T, Net Profit KRW 1.42T, EPS KRW 5,623
- 2027F (Forecast): Revenue KRW 29.50T, Operating Profit KRW 2.08T, Net Profit KRW 1.52T, EPS KRW 6,014
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Q2 Earnings Outlook & Dividend Conditions:
- Consolidated Q2 operating profit is expected to fall short of consensus (KRW 609.0B), weighed down by weak standalone results despite solid performance at subsidiaries such as KT Estate and kt cloud.
- Standalone Q2 operating profit is estimated at KRW 382.0B (-18% YoY, +22% QoQ) due to mobile service revenue declines from 5G subscriber churn, as well as higher labor and overhead costs.
- Standalone net profit for 2026 is projected to remain around KRW 1.0T, limiting DPS growth through next year. The corporate payout policy guarantees a minimum 2026 DPS of KRW 2,400 (KRW 600.0B total dividend), alongside returning 50% of adjusted standalone net profit via dividends and share cancellations over 2026–2028.
- Medium- to Long-Term Catalysts & Industry Outlook:
- Long-term consolidated operating profit (excluding one-off items) is expected to maintain an upward trend, backed by service revenue expansion and increasing subsidiary contributions.
- As AI network evolution spreads from the US to Korea, the rollout of new 5G rate plans is anticipated to gain traction by 2027, forming expectations for ARPU recovery.
- While short-term catalysts remain limited, valuation support on PBR and PER multiples combined with progressive revenue recovery expectations post-year-end provide medium-term downside support.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views KT as an enterprise undergoing a transitional phase characterized by near-term standalone earnings moderation and flat dividend payouts, while positioning for a medium- to long-term operational recovery anchored by attractive PBR/PER valuation multiples and 2027 AI-driven 5G tariff restructuring. This perspective emphasizes underlying service revenue growth, sustained subsidiary profit contributions, and future ARPU inflection over the lack of immediate quarterly earnings or dividend catalysts.
To verify whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key monitoring points include whether standalone wireless revenue declines stabilize in the second half, the adherence to the 2026 minimum DPS of KRW 2,400 under the 50% shareholder return framework, and the commercial introduction of AI network-linked 5G rate plans alongside measurable ARPU expansion toward 2027. Relevant updates can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, corporate business reports, and periodic regulatory filings.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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