Market: KOSPI (017670)
Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Hong-sik Kim (RA: Sang-hoon Lee)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 100,000 (Maintain)
Core Momentum : Early normalization of 1Q DPS (KRW 800+) driving dividend confidence, profit expansion from a low base, and multiple expansion as 5G SA tariffs integrate AI and quantum cryptography services.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, 12-Month Target Price maintained at KRW 100,000 (Based on the February 23, 2026 closing price of KRW 80,100), reaffirmed as Sector Top Pick for March and the next 12 months
- Target Price Upside Potential: Notes potential to raise the target price toward KRW 120,000 if 5G SA evolution compresses the required dividend yield toward the 3% level
- FY2026 Full-Year Forecast:
- Annual Revenue: KRW 17.816 Trillion
- Annual Operating Profit: KRW 1.879 Trillion (+75.1% YoY)
- Annual Net Profit (Controlling Interests): KRW 1.150 Trillion
- 2026E EPS: KRW 5,355 / BPS: KRW 58,393 / ROE: 9.48% / PER: 14.96x / PBR: 1.37x / EV/EBITDA: 4.14x
- Dividends & Shareholder Returns:
- 1Q DPS projected at KRW 800 or higher (to be finalized and announced in April, reinforcing early normalization)
- Projected FY2026 annual DPS of KRW 3,600 (Current expected dividend yield of ~4.5%, offering higher effective return under tax-exempt status)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- March Buying Opportunity & Favorable Supply-Demand:
- High conviction in full-year dividend recovery ahead of the 1Q DPS announcement in April.
- Foreign ownership sits at a low ~38% (38.25%), providing ample room for inflows alongside potential AI institutional fund allocations following sovereign AI project selections.
- Core Drivers: 5G SA Tariffs & AI/Quantum Integration (Not Anthropic):
- Dismisses views that recent stock gains are merely driven by Anthropic divestment expectations, emphasizing earnings acceleration and dividend normalization under 5G SA.
- SKT leads the integration of AI and quantum communications into dedicated 5G SA plans, backed by its proprietary AI foundation model and Quantum business unit.
- Physical AI Catalyst & Yield Compression to 3%:
- Global telcos preparing for 5G SA adoption and new tariff models to power Physical AI applications.
- Structural multiple expansion cycle expected—reminiscent of the LTE transition—potentially driving expected dividend yields below 3% and supporting share price upside toward KRW 120,000.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst attributes SK Telecom’s primary share price upside not to speculative Anthropic gains, but to the fundamental restoration of earnings and dividends (1Q DPS projected at KRW 800+) alongside the structural rollout of 5G SA networks. This perspective treats the 4.5% dividend yield, tax-exempt payout appeal, and low foreign positioning (38%) as solid downside support, while identifying specialized 5G SA tariffs—infused with sovereign AI and quantum encryption—and Physical AI expansion as primary catalysts capable of compressing target yields to the 3% range (KRW 120,000 target level) over the medium term.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis materializes, key verification points include confirming that 1Q DPS is declared at or above KRW 800 in April to support the annual KRW 3,600 dividend roadmap, verifying that low-base effects deliver the projected FY2026 ~KRW 1.88 Trillion operating profit turnaround, and monitoring commercialization progress regarding 5G SA network launches and new AI/quantum service plan structures. These developments can be tracked via upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and periodic DART statutory filings.
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