Market: KOSPI (017670)
Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Hong-sik Kim (RA: Sang-hoon Lee)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 100,000 (Maintain)
Core Momentum : Industry-leading profit and dividend growth across domestic telcos driven by solid 1Q earnings and early dividend normalization, alongside structural valuation premiums from 5G SA, sovereign AI projects, and quantum cryptography.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, 12-Month Target Price maintained at KRW 100,000 (Based on the April 8, 2026 closing price of KRW 89,000), named Sector Top Pick for April and the next 12 months
- 1Q26 Earnings Forecast (Preview):
- Consolidated Operating Profit: KRW 523.1 Billion (-8% YoY, +339% QoQ, beating market consensus of KRW 506.9 Billion)
- Sequential rebound in wireless service revenue supported by 5G net subscriber expansion
- Operating expenses stabilized with YoY/QoQ labor cost reductions from structural restructuring and flat depreciation trends
- FY2026 Full-Year Forecast:
- Annual Revenue: KRW 17.798 Trillion
- Annual Operating Profit: KRW 1.887 Trillion (Approaching ~KRW 1.9 Trillion, exceeding FY2024 performance)
- Annual Net Profit (Controlling Interests): KRW 1.157 Trillion
- 2026E EPS: KRW 5,386 / BPS: KRW 63,303 / ROE: 8.77% / PER: 16.52x / PBR: 1.41x / EV/EBITDA: 4.09x
- Dividends & Shareholder Returns:
- 1Q DPS expected to be declared within KRW 800–900 in late April (raising expectations for early dividend normalization)
- Projected FY2026 DPS: KRW 3,600; FY2027 DPS: KRW 3,800
- Implied dividend yield of 3.6% at the KRW 100,000 target price (current 2026E yield stands at ~4.0%, highest among the three domestic telcos)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Accelerating Operational & Dividend Normalization:
- Operational turnaround firmly established with sequential wireless revenue gains following the dissipation of 2Q25 business suspension effects.
- Driven by a favorable base, SKT is projected to achieve the strongest earnings and dividend growth rates among domestic peers in 2026.
- 5G SA Transition & Premium Catalysts:
- High exposure to wireless service, strong likelihood of national AI project selection, and deep expertise in quantum cryptography position SKT for valuation premium expansion as 5G SA rolls out late this year.
- Supply-Demand Dynamics & 1H Target Price Breakthrough:
- Historic lows in foreign ownership (39.05%) provide a favorable supply-demand setup for institutional and foreign dividend inflows following 1Q earnings and dividend announcements.
- Strong momentum supports the potential for share prices to surpass KRW 100,000 in 1H.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst identifies SK Telecom as the premier sector pick, positioned to deliver industry-leading earnings and dividend expansion in 2026 on the back of solid 1Q results and the early normalization of 1Q DPS (projected at KRW 800–900). This perspective establishes an industry-high ~4.0% dividend yield and historically low foreign ownership as solid downside buffers, while regarding the year-end 5G SA rollout, national AI project participation, and quantum cryptography infrastructure as primary drivers for multiple re-rating.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis materializes, key verification points include confirming that 1Q DPS is declared in the KRW 800–900 range in late April to support the FY2026 KRW 3,600 DPS target, verifying that 1Q operating profit surpasses KRW 520 Billion to establish the ~KRW 1.9 Trillion annual run-rate, and tracking regulatory and commercialization milestones for the late-year 5G SA launch and sovereign AI project selections. These developments can be verified via upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR materials, and periodic DART statutory filings.
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